The Ukrainian army remains on the defensive on the fronts, and entire cities are suffering from power and heating outages. The key condition for EU membership, which is the recovery of all Ukrainian territories from Russia, remains out of reach, meaning that full membership will, for now, be more of a theoretical possibility than a practical reality. A professor at Odesa National University, Wolf and Tetiana Maliarenko, believe that Brussels's latest report, despite its positive tone, contains sharp criticism. Even after the EU gave Ukraine positive signals about future membership, the EU Enlargement Commissioner said in an interview with the Financial Times that she does not want to be remembered as the person who allowed a 'Trojan horse' into the Union, referring to the negative experience with Hungary. Slovak journalist Ellis Goubi believes the EU faces a daunting task: it must prove to the skeptical public that the accession of new members will strengthen, not weaken, the Union. Doubts grow when it becomes clear that the Union cannot even guarantee funding for Ukraine in the coming years. Therefore, he has called for thinking of a new, more flexible form of membership, 'gradual accession,' especially since Ukraine is already functioning as a member in many areas. While the war is still raging, Kyiv has made more progress toward joining the EU compared to some Balkan countries that enjoyed full peace for a decade. According to the EU report, Ukraine has made significant progress in 33 out of 35 chapters of accession negotiations. The fallout from the corruption scandal that rocked the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been so immense that it has overshadowed the wave of optimism sparked by European praise for Ukraine's progress on its path to EU membership. The report, published just days before the 'eruption' of the corruption scandal, noted that 'recent developments cast a shadow on Ukraine's commitment to the anti-corruption path.' Nevertheless, the European Commission has tried to defend Kyiv, emphasizing that corruption is not unique to any one country, and what matters is how it is dealt with. A Commission spokesperson said that ongoing investigations are proof that anti-corruption bodies are 'functioning effectively,' adding: 'Combating corruption has always been a cornerstone of EU enlargement, and it requires continuous efforts to ensure strong anti-corruption capacity and respect for the rule of law.' However, the obstacles to Ukraine's EU accession by 2030 seem too great to ignore. The Economist magazine warned that Ukraine faces a 'large financial deficit' and could deplete its reserves by next February, while it needs about $61 billion to cover its budget deficit until 2027 amid the U.S. administration's withdrawal from supporting Kyiv and the ongoing war, while Belgium opposes the use of frozen Russian assets, given that Belgium holds these billions in Brussels. According to University of Regensburg historian Ulf Brünbauer, past experiences in the Western Balkans have shown that making big promises about EU accession without delivering on them breeds frustration and fuels the rise of the far right, referring to negative developments in North Macedonia. Since 2014, no new member has joined the EU, and there is hesitation among many European countries about expanding the Union to include countries like Montenegro and Albania, let alone Ukraine and Moldova. France, in particular, is especially skeptical about eastern enlargement, fearing that far-right groups will exploit the issue in the 2027 elections. Polls also show that 46% of the population in Austria, France, and the Czech Republic oppose enlargement, while Slovakia, and possibly the Czech Republic, reject Ukraine's accession. Even in Poland, where greater support is expected, polls have shown public opposition to Ukrainian accession, especially due to recent disputes over agricultural exports. In Germany, the pro-Russian 'Alternative for Germany' party leads those who oppose Ukrainian membership. Critics argue that the EU's excessive optimism toward Ukraine without the actual capacity to support it could repeat past mistakes. On November 12, the ministers of energy and justice resigned, just before the start of a wide-ranging investigation into the energy sector. Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau has charged eight officials with abuse of power, receiving bribes, and illicit enrichment, dealing a significant blow to Zelensky's administration at a time when Ukraine is engaged in tough battles on the fronts. Meanwhile, the European Commission had published its annual report on Ukraine's progress toward membership, which was extremely optimistic, just days before the corruption allegations surfaced that implicated high-level government officials. Ukraine was granted EU candidate status three years ago, following the Russian invasion, and began accession negotiations in December 2023. While this proposal does not meet the goal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who considers EU membership a strategic goal that provides political and security guarantees for the country, it could be a reasonable compromise that keeps Ukraine within the European space and confirms that its sacrifices in the war will not be in vain. The corruption scandal overshadowed the wave of optimism sparked by European praise for Ukraine's progress on its path to EU membership. Political scientist Stephen Wolf of the University of Birmingham called this progress a 'major achievement,' especially since the report recorded no stagnation or regression in any of the chapters. Ukraine has set an ambitious goal of completing the accession process by 2028, while EU Enlargement Commissioner Kaja Kallas described the prospect of Ukraine's membership as 'very high' even by 2030. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, praised the courage of Ukrainian reforms, stressing that no candidate country has ever implemented reforms at such a speed in a time of war. However, this praise was somewhat tempered when it came to the rule of law, administrative reform, and the maturity of democratic institutions. The EU warned of 'negative trends' in recent times, including pressure on specialized anti-corruption agencies and civil society, referring to the government's attempt last summer to limit the powers of the independent anti-corruption bureau. In light of the new corruption scandal, it has become clear that Ukraine's path will be longer and more complicated than progress reports suggest, and the reform path remains fragile. The challenges go beyond corruption to include the deteriorating military and economic situation.
