Recordings show Vitkov explaining to Yushikov how Putin deals with Trump, pointing out that the US President will support Russia's demand for control over the remaining part of the Donetsk region, which represents one of the most complex points of disagreement. The question remains: when will Russia start to concede? And what will the situation be on the front lines? It appears that Trump has retreated from his demand that Ukraine sign the agreement before December, but he may later face disappointment in the direction things are heading. Ukrainian observers believe the Kremlin will not be ready to compromise until the end of winter, when Trump will decide whether to launch a new round of pressure, coinciding with the start of the Russian economy feeling the effects of falling oil revenues and Western sanctions. If American foreign policy appears turbulent, this is partly due to internal disagreements. On one hand, there are Vitkov and Vice President J.D. Vance, who show a tendency towards a settlement that strengthens Russia's position and prioritizes American commercial interests. On the other hand, there are the traditional institutions in intelligence and the State Department, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who worked with his European allies to try to get things back on track. According to sources in the White House, Rubio won this round, but the struggle is not over yet. The tensions were not limited to the Trump administration. On November 25, Bloomberg published two recordings believed to be the first between Vitkov and Yushikov, a Kremlin foreign policy advisor, and the second between Yushikov and Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev. By mid-December, a European summit may be held that could make a decision on the frozen Russian assets, which have become more important than ever. Ukrainian diplomats say the path has become extremely narrow, requiring avoiding any clash with US President Donald Trump, maintaining the continued flow of European-funded weapons, and waiting in the hope that the Kremlin will come to the realization that the war has become unsustainable. Ukraine seemed more satisfied with the latest version of the US-Russia 'peace plan'. Trump backed down from his demand that Ukraine sign the agreement before December. Despite Dmitriev denying the call took place, Yushikov's stance was less harsh. In another, stricter American administration, such a leak might have led to Vitkov's dismissal, but Trump confirmed instead that his envoy will visit the Kremlin next week to meet with Putin, and also appointed Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, a close ally of Vance, to the position of US contact person in Ukraine. These developments come amid a growing internal tension in Ukraine following a corruption scandal within the state-owned 'Energoatom' company, which specializes in nuclear energy and includes several close associates of Zelensky. The company's former business partner, Timur Menedish, fled to Israel after being accused of involvement in a scheme to defraud at least $100 million through kickbacks in work contracts. Two ministers were also dismissed from their posts, while a former deputy prime minister and longtime friend of the president faces fraud charges. Nevertheless, Zelensky rejected calls for government reforms or the dismissal of his influential chief of staff, Andrei Yermak, who has gained some leeway through his leadership of the Ukrainian delegation in the peace negotiations. Compared to the threat of internal instability, the combat front seems to be a less urgent concern. Some analysts believe the military situation is still manageable, as Russia has not yet shown the ability to turn its slow progress into a decisive victory. Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk stated that Russia, with its current difficulties and rising costs, is not in a position to achieve a strategic victory. However, several indicators suggest the situation is worsening for Ukraine, which is suffering from a severe shortage of soldiers, while Russia's investments in drone production have paid off, allowing it to destroy vital supply lines behind the front line. Moscow is also developing new weapons, such as attack drones with turbojet engines and guided bombs, which could make eastern cities like Kharkiv and Dnipro uninhabitable. Under these circumstances, many Ukrainians believe it is unlikely that Putin will accept any agreement that allows Ukraine to remain strong, and that forcing him to do so requires massive American pressure, which Washington does not seem ready to provide. Ukrainian diplomats believe their country's best bet is to continue fighting without losing allied support. This requires renewing the flow of foreign funding, which is currently expected to come from Europe alone. For Ukraine, a week is a long time. On November 19, reports emerged of a US-Russia 'peace plan' that seemed to Kyiv more like a demand for surrender. A few days later, officials from Europe, Ukraine, and the US met in Geneva for an emergency summit aimed at reworking the proposed peace plan, while American and Russian negotiators concluded consultations on a revised draft of the plan. According to those familiar with the recent talks, the plan is still unstable. Nevertheless, Ukraine appears to be satisfied with the latest version of the document, although no one expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to easily agree to these terms. Overall, the process seems to be leaning in favor of what Moscow wants, as the negotiations aim to reconcile Russia's demands and Ukraine's concessions, with the last word likely to remain with the Kremlin. In Kyiv, panic and mutual accusations gave way to a sense of relief. The Geneva talks removed the most contentious points from the original 28-point draft, reportedly drafted by US Ambassador Steve Vitkov in cooperation with the Russians. The new 19-point version relaxed restrictions on the size of the Ukrainian army, allowing it to reach 800,000 soldiers instead of 600,000, and also removed clauses related to pardoning war crimes and any mention of enabling the US to benefit from some of Russia's frozen assets. However, several of the most sensitive issues were left for US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss. They include Russia's demands regarding Ukrainian territories, amending the constitution to rule out the possibility of joining NATO, and the nature of US security guarantees. A planned meeting between Zelensky and Trump at the White House on November 27 was postponed. It is difficult to judge the realism of the peace process, but the latest rounds of negotiations and American pressure on Ukraine are the most significant so far. A Western diplomat in Kyiv stated that these negotiations are radically different from what was customary before, while sources close to the talks spoke of a 'significant breakthrough' in bridging the Russian and Ukrainian positions. One source said the process is approaching a critical point: either it continues or it declares failure, but at the same time, they expected Moscow to soften its stance eventually, although the process could take several months at best.
