The last order of the U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the suspension of military aid and intelligence exchanges with Ukraine may affect the course of hostilities between Russia and Ukrainian forces, creating a situation of either fighting for peace or granting priority to Russia. With support from Europe in the form of weapons or intelligence assistance, Ukraine may continue to fight through the summer without additional U.S. support. However, analysts warn that the loss of one of the main allies could make Russian aggression against Ukrainian defenders more likely.
"Despite the lack of military resources, Ukrainians are successfully preventing Russian breakthroughs," indicates Set Johns, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Trump administration asserts that the suspension of aid could be relatively short-term if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy succumbs to the demands of the White House, although Trump also stated in his address before Congress that he valued Zelenskyy's readiness "to come to the negotiating table."
At present, the Trump administration is applying maximum pressure on Ukraine, but relatively less than President Vladimir Putin of Russia or the Russian military, which continues to attack Ukrainian cities. If Ukraine considers that the U.S. is incapacitated to intervene as an unbiased mediator in peace negotiations, it can continue to struggle with European support.
Trump's decision to suspend military assistance signals a change in the supply of military equipment and ammunition from the U.S. to Ukrainian armed forces. The cessation of equipment supplies from American military stockpiles and assistance through the military aid program to Ukraine, which equips Kyiv with financing for direct purchases of new military equipment from American manufacturers, will lead to losses for Ukraine in terms of prior weaponry, including ground-based ballistic missiles, long-range artillery systems, spare parts, technical maintenance, and support.
A key moment is that the cessation of American military assistance will halt the supply of anti-aircraft missile systems to Patriot and Nazists, which save a significant number of lives, protecting Ukrainian cities from missile attacks and drones, while the cessation of intelligence exchanges allows Ukraine to use information for attacks on Russian forces.
The suspension of assistance is aimed at pressing Zelenskyy to finalize a deal that would allow American companies to acquire Ukrainian resources, and if an agreement is reached, military supplies already provided by the Biden administration will continue to be exchanged with intelligence services. Russian troops are attempting to retake large territories in the Kursk region, seized from Ukraine last year.
Europe, especially France and the United Kingdom, continues to provide Ukraine with reconnaissance satellites that may be used for monitoring Russian objectives on the battlefield, although European reconnaissance satellites cannot track Russian military movements, as noted by Ukrainian officials. If the exchange of intelligence does not resume, this may have serious consequences for Ukraine.
If American support is suspended after the start of summer, Ukraine will lose some advanced weaponry, including the Patriot missiles and ground-based ballistic systems, navigation and long-range artillery systems, due to which Ukraine loses the ability to strike distant targets, which makes the country and Ukrainian forces more vulnerable to missile attacks, equipment, and drones.
The Pentagon reported last Monday that the Trump administration has sent some military equipment, which was previously agreed upon by the administration of ex-President Joe Biden, to Ukraine, including hundreds of multiple launch rocket systems, anti-tank weapons, and thousands of artillery shells. However, according to statements by Trump, these supplies will be suspended, at least until the president decides that Ukraine demonstrates goodwill in negotiations with Russia, as noted by a high-ranking official in the administration.
However, an expert on Russian affairs from the George Washington Institute believes that "the types of weapons used by Ukrainians today differ from those they strongly relied on at the beginning of the conflict." He notes that Ukraine's defense industry has significantly grown and they are capable of producing many of the necessary items, and he thinks that much of the loss inflicted on Russian troops by Ukrainians is related to local armed drones and other armaments produced by Ukraine itself.
There is a risk that European countries may be forced to sacrifice parts of their own air defense systems, such as Patriot type systems, for the sake of Ukraine, which could become a complicated request at a time when the allies within the North Atlantic Alliance are no longer confident that the U.S. will come to their aid in case of attack.
European leaders are stating that they are gathering in Brussels to discuss two main themes: how to support Ukraine and how to strengthen their military capabilities.
